Over the past several decades, U.S. firms have been seeking more highly skilled workers with well-developed “soft” skills as well as technical expertise. More recently, policymakers are concerned that a lack of skilled workers has made it difficult to fill jobs that are in high demand during the economic recovery, possibly leading to slower than expected improvement in the labor market—particularly among “middle-skill” jobs that require postsecondary education and training, but less than a four-year degree.
My research demonstrates that changing employer skill requirements are driven by short-term cyclical fluctuations as well as long-run secular trends. My investigation of millions of online jobs postings reveals that higher unemployment among less-skilled individuals during recessions can be linked in part to employers raising education and experience requirements when workers are in greater supply (Modestino, Shoag and Balance 2020 and 2016). This finding, backed by qualitative interviews with employers, explains an ongoing puzzle in economics regarding the recent shift in the relationship between unemployment and job vacancies known as the Beveridge curve (Modestino, Shoag, and Moss 2018). These results have also helped dispel the notion that a large mismatch exists in the labor market (Burke, Modestino, Taska, Sederberg, and Sadighi 2019). Much of this research has been extensively covered in media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal, Vox, the Washington Post, NPR, Bloomberg, and the Boston Globe.
PEER REVIEWED JOURNALS
Published, In-Press, or Accepted
Modestino, A., Shoag, D., and Ballance, J. 2020. “Upskilling: Do Employers Demand Greater Skill When Workers Are Plentiful?” Review of Economics and Statistics,102(4): 793-805.
[Publication]
[Working Paper Version]
Media Coverage: Wall Street Journal (2019) (2015) (2014), Forbes (2020) Vox (2019), Boston Globe (2018), Washington Post (2016), NPR (2015), Bloomberg (2015)
Modestino, A., Shoag, D., and Ballance, J. 2016. “Downskilling: Changes in Employer Skill Requirements Over the Business Cycle.” Labour Economics, (41): 333-347.
[Publication]
[Working Paper Version]
Media Coverage: Wall Street Journal (2021) (2018), Boston Globe (2017) (2015)
Modestino, A., K., Ladge. J., Sugiyama, K. 2019. Careers in Construction: An Examination of How Young Professionals Navigate Different Career Paths and Construct a Professional Identity. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 115: 1-21.
[Publication]
[Working Paper Version]
Revise and Resubmit
Burke M., Modestino, A., Taska B., Sederberg R, and Sadighi, S. 2020. No Longer Qualified? Changes in the Supply and Demand for Skills within Occupations. Industrial Labor and Relations Review.
[Working Paper Version]
Currently Under Review
Sugiyama, K., Ladge. J., Modestino A. 2019. “Navigating Predictable Paths and Experimental Twists: Developing Career Identity Across Multiple Levels, Processes, and Outcomes.” Submitted, Journal of Management Studies.
[Working Paper Version]
Working Papers in Preparation for Submission
Hyun, Y†, Kahn, S., & Modestino, A. The Structural Decline in Job Turnover in the Early 2000s: Disequilibrium or New Normal? pp. 1-55.
Kahn, S., Kim, H., Modestino, A., Taska, B., & Walker, D. Estimating the Effects of MBA Degrees on Career Trajectories using Transformer-Based Models. pp. 1-37
Modestino, A., Shoag, D., and Moss, P. 2017. Upskilling During the Great Recession: Why Do Employers Demand Greater Skill When Workers Are Plentiful? Russell Sage Foundation.
[Working Paper Version]
INVITED ARTICLES
Modestino, A., Ladge, J. Swartz, A. and Lincoln, A. 2021. Childcare is a Business Issue. Harvard Business Review, April 29, pp. 1-7.
[Publication]
Media Coverage: The Daily Show [2021], MSNBC [2021], NPR Marketplace [2021], PBS NewsHour [2021], Politico [2021], USA Today [2021], Washington Post [2021]
Modestino, A. and Shoag, D. 2018. When the Economy Is Good, Employers Demand Fewer Credentials. Harvard Business Review, August.
[Publication]
Modestino, A. 2016. The Importance of Middle-Skill Jobs. Issues in Science and Technology. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, Fall, pp. 41-6.
[Publication]
Modestino, A. 2011. Mismatch in the Labor Market: The Supply and Demand for Middle-Skill
Workers in New England. The New England Journal of Higher Education. February.
[Publication]
Modestino, A. 2009. The Future of the Skilled Labor Force. The New England Journal of Higher Education, vol. XXIII, No. 3, pp.15-18.
[Publication]
PUBLIC POLICY REPORTS AND BRIEFS
Modestino, A. and Ben Forman. Pathways to Economic Mobility: Identifying the Labor Market Value of Community College in Massachusetts. The Boston Foundation, Understanding Boston report series, June 10, 2021.
[Publication]
Media Coverage: WBUR [2021]
Modestino, A. The Childcare Industry in New England. 2020. Global Resilience Institute, FEMA Whitepaper Series, August 24, 2020, pp. 1-21.
[Publication]
Media Coverage: ABC News NightLine [2020], Axios [2020], Boston Globe [2020], Fox News [2020], The New Yorker [2020], NPR OnPoint [2020], PBS NewsHour [2020], Wall Street Journal [2020], Washington Post [2020] and [2020],
Modestino, A. and Sederberg, R. 2019. Untapped: Redefining Hiring in the New Economy. Office of Workforce Development, City of Boston.
[Publication]
Modestino, A., McHugh, W., Chan, A., Irvine, C., Jones, N., Mihevc, J., Morris, T. 2018. Findings of the 2017 CAE Member Institution Cybersecurity Survey. National Security Agency.
[Publication]
Modestino, A. 2015. Middle Skill Workers and Today’s Labor Market. The National Academies, Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Commissioned paper for the “Symposium on the Supply Chain for Middle-Skill Jobs: Education, Training, and Certification,” September.
[Publication]
Modestino, A. and Dennett, J. 2011. The Middle-Skills Gap: Ensuring an Adequate Supply of Skilled Labor in Northern and Southern New England. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, New England Public Policy Center, Policy Brief No. 11-1.
[Publication]
Modestino, A. 2010. Mismatch in the Labor Market: Measuring the Supply of and Demand for Skilled Labor in New England. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, New England Public Policy Center, Research Report No. 10-2.
[Publication]
