Over the past several decades, U.S. firms have been seeking more highly skilled workers with well-developed “soft” skills and growing technical expertise, including generative AI. At the same time, policymakers are concerned rapidly changing skill requirements make it difficult to fill jobs that are in high demand while also leaving some unemployed workers no longer qualified for their jobs—particularly “middle-skill” workers with some postsecondary education and training, but less than a four-year degree (Modestino and Auclair 2022).
In the last decade, my research has demonstrated that changing employer skill requirements are driven by short-term cyclical fluctuations as well as long-run secular trends. My investigation of millions of online jobs postings collected by Lightcast revealed that higher unemployment among less-skilled individuals during recessions can be linked in part to rising education and experience requirements when workers are in greater supply (Modestino, Shoag and Ballance 2020). Conversely, as the labor market tightens, some of these requirements are subsequently lowered to meet rising labor demand (Modestino, Shoag and Ballance 2016).
These findings, backed by qualitative interviews with employers, help explain an ongoing puzzle in economics regarding the shifting relationship between unemployment and job vacancies known as the Beveridge curve. Although labor market "mismatch" often refers to an imbalances in supply and demand across occupations, mismatch within occupations can arise if skill requirements are changing over time, potentially reducing aggregate matching efficiency within the labor market. My latest research reveals that “upskilling” varies considerably across occupations, is often coupled with an increased demand for software skills and persists longer than previously known. During the Great Recession, upskilling within occupations reduced matching efficiency in higher-skilled sectors of the labor market, potentially because they are becoming more specialized, possibly explaining growing wage polarization and inequality. Much of this research has been extensively covered in media outlets such as the New York Times, Time Magazine, Wall Street Journal, NPR, and the Boston Globe.
PEER REVIEWED JOURNALS
Published, In-Press, or Accepted
Modestino, A., Burke, M., Taska, B., Sederberg, R., & Sadighi, S., Stern, T. No Longer Qualified? Changes in the Supply and Demand for Skills within Occupations. IZA Institute of Labor Economics, Discussion Paper No. 16542, pp. 1-59. Revise and Resubmit at Industrial and Labor Relations Review.
[Pre-print Version]
Media Coverage: Straight Arrow News [2024], Harvard Business Review Magazine [2023], Boston Globe [2023], Business Insider [2023], MoneyWise [2023], New York Times [2022], Yahoo Finance [2022], NPR [2022], Wall Street Journal [2021], Time Magazine [2021]
Modestino, A., Shoag, D., and Ballance, J. 2020. “Upskilling: Do Employers Demand Greater Skill When Workers Are Plentiful?” Review of Economics and Statistics,102(4): 793-805.
[Publication] [Pre-print Version]
Media Coverage: Wall Street Journal [2019] [2015] [2014], Forbes [2020], Vox [2019], Boston Globe [2018], Washington Post [2016], NPR [2015], Bloomberg [2015]
Modestino, A., Shoag, D., and Ballance, J. 2016. “Downskilling: Changes in Employer Skill Requirements Over the Business Cycle.” Labour Economics, (41): 333-347.
[Publication] [Pre-print Version]
Media Coverage: Wall Street Journal [2021] [2018], Boston Globe [2017] [2015]
Modestino, A., K., Ladge. J., and Sugiyama, K. 2019. Careers in Construction: An Examination of How Young Professionals Navigate Different Career Paths and Construct a Professional Identity. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 115: 1-21.
[Publication] [Pre-print Version]
Sugiyama, K., Ladge, J.J. Modestino, A, and Kenney, K. 2018. Careers in construction: Developing career identity out of redefining moments. Academy of Management Best Paper Proceedings, Chicago, IL.
[Publication] [Working Pre-print Version]
Working Papers in Preparation for Submission
Westby, S. and A. Modestino. The Impact of Generative AI on Employer Hiring Practices for Software Developers, pp. 1-37, May 2025.
Hyun, Y, Kahn, S., & Modestino, A. The Structural Decline in Job Turnover in the Early 2000s: Disequilibrium or New Normal? pp. 1-55, December 2023.
Kahn, S., Kim, H., Modestino, A., Taska, B., & Walker, D. Estimating the Effects of MBA Degrees on Career Trajectories using Transformer-Based Models. pp. 1-37, October 2023.
INVITED ARTICLES
Modestino, A. and Auclair, J. 2022. Viewpoint: Expanding workforce access in the biotech industry. Boston Business Journal, May 17, 2022. [Publication]
Modestino, A. and Shoag, D. 2018. When the Economy Is Good, Employers Demand Fewer Credentials. Harvard Business Review, August. [Publication]
Modestino, A. 2016. The Importance of Middle-Skill Jobs. Issues in Science and Technology. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, Fall, pp. 41-6. [Publication]
Modestino, A. 2011. Mismatch in the Labor Market: The Supply and Demand for Middle-Skill
Workers in New England. The New England Journal of Higher Education. February. [Publication]
Modestino, A. 2009. The Future of the Skilled Labor Force. The New England Journal of Higher Education, vol. XXIII, No. 3, pp.15-18. [Publication]
PUBLIC POLICY REPORTS AND BRIEFS
Modestino, A. 2024. Analyzing the Employment Situation Report. Burnes Center for Social Change, Northeastern University. [Monthly Blogcast]
Fitzgerald, J., Modestino, A., Andreason, S., King, G. Green New Deal Workforce Assessment, City of Boston Research Report, May, 2025. [Forthcoming]
Modestino, A. and Ben Forman. Pathways to Economic Mobility: Identifying the Labor Market Value of Community College in Massachusetts. The Boston Foundation, Understanding Boston report series, June 10, 2021. [Publication] Media Coverage: WBUR [2021]
Modestino, A. and Sederberg, R. 2019. Untapped: Redefining Hiring in the New Economy. Office of Workforce Development, City of Boston. [Publication]
Modestino, A., McHugh, W., Chan, A., Irvine, C., Jones, N., Mihevc, J., Morris, T. 2018. Findings of the 2017 CAE Member Institution Cybersecurity Survey. National Security Agency. [Publication]
Modestino, A. 2015. Middle Skill Workers and Today’s Labor Market. The National Academies, Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Commissioned paper for the “Symposium on the Supply Chain for Middle-Skill Jobs: Education, Training, and Certification,” September. [Publication]
Modestino, A. and Dennett, J. 2011. The Middle-Skills Gap: Ensuring an Adequate Supply of Skilled Labor in Northern and Southern New England. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, New England Public Policy Center, Policy Brief No. 11-1. [Publication]
Modestino, A. 2010. Mismatch in the Labor Market: Measuring the Supply of and Demand for Skilled Labor in New England. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, New England Public Policy Center, Research Report No. 10-2. [Publication]
